The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009. The presentation to the press slide show puts the development of the report in context: economic crisis, oil price fall and rise, decreased energy investment, upcoming Copenhagen climate change negotiations. Two articles covering the release of the report highlight the WEO's projection of oil demand by 2030 and ballparking the peak of fossil fuel usage necessary to prevent a spike in global warning.
"A developing thirst" from The Economist provides the graphic above. We can summarize the information on the graphic, saying:
- OECD countries will demand less oil in 2030 than they did in 1980
- The US sticks out from this group; while the US will use less oil in 2030 than it did in 2008, it will not retreat to levels of 1980
- Non-OECD countries' demand for oil will soar by 2030
- This surge comes mostly from the developing economies of China and India
- The Middle East will continue to demand more oil (while simaltaneously its countries' oil supplies will be depleting/depleted)
- In sum, "Global demand for oil is set to rise from 84.7m barrels per day (bpd) in 2008 to 105m bpd in 2030."
Better energy efficiency, rapid growth in renewable energy, and increased use of nuclear power will be critical to move the world away from fossil fuels, the IEA believes. A second revolution would have to happen in the automobile industry so that six of every ten cars sold in 2030 are hybrids or electric by 2030.
Energy demand and its influence on economies and the climate is showing itself as a not so long term problem, though many have tabled it in favor of short term issues. Swift actions have to be taken, and the prospects for meeting a decline in fossil fuel use by 2020 do not look promising with the expected oil demand from Asia. It will be surprising and encouraging if the Copenhagen conference produces commitment and action particularly among the countries that will continue to consume more oil.
Nothing will happen; it's like trying to convince China and India to stop polluting so much, or trying to convince the local Omani population to stop littering so much.
ReplyDeleteWithout immediate incentives, no one will do anything.
-Omani in US
Incentivesss, yes. Or disincentives more likely.
ReplyDeleteLittering in Oman will have to get its own sad and depressing blog post. I was appalled last weekend when I went to a picturesque island off of Barka and it looked liked Vikings had camped there and left their mark and trash behind. But like I said, I'll devote more space to that soon.